NHK Predictions

1) Mao Asada JPN
2) Fumie Suguri JPN
3) Yukari Nakano JPN
4) Beatrisa Liang USA
5) Arina Martinova RUS
6) Christine Zukowski USA

Mao Asada may have struggled with her long program at Skate America but she’s simply too talented and complete a skater to not win a Grand Prix title this season. Equipped with hands down the strongest short program of the season, she should be able to pull out a win in her home country. Fumie and Yukari, both coming off of silver GP performances of varying calibers, should easily earn medals in a somewhat anemic field. Look for the two American skaters and Russia’s lone representative to round out the top six.

2006 Pacific Coast Sectionals - Senior Ladies Long Program Pictures - Second Batch

More pictures from PCS...

7th Place Finisher - Crystal Shum

8th Place Finisher - Jacquelyn Garces

9th Place Finisher - Jessica Martino

2006 Pacific Coast Sectionals - Senior Ladies Long Program Pictures - First Batch

I'm going to add some of my photos from the senior ladies long program at Pacific Coast Sectionals throughout the next few days.

10th Place Finisher - Olivia Olsen

11th Place Finisher- Anna Madorsky
None of her long program photos turned out . :-(

12th Place Finisher - Crystal Williams

13th Place Finisher - Stephanie Smith

Cup of Russia - Final Results

1) Sarah Meier SUI 159.17 3 1
2) Julia Sebestyen HUN 146.75 1 5
3) Yoshie Onda JPN 143.60 6 2
4) Elena Sokolova RUS 143.11 2 6
5) Aki Sawada JPN 142.04 7 3
6) Kiira Korpi FIN 137.41 9 4
7) Arina Martinova RUS 134.91 4 7
8) Viktoria Volchkova RUS 130.83 5 8
9) Alissa Czisny USA 121.21 8 10
10) Yan Liu CHN 114.65 11 11
11) Anastasia Gimazetdinova UZB 114.12 10 12
12) Viktoria Pavuk HUN 111.74 12 9

Wow, I seriously overestimated Alissa Czisny's final placement. She had 4.0 worth of deductions in just the long program alone. The battle for the podium at US Nationals will be wide open this year. You have to wonder if Sasha Cohen isn't the slightest bit tempted to show up in Spokane? US Figure Skating would probably get on their knees and weep with joy if she decided to go for a World spot. Aside from Kimmie Meissner, none of the other American women are showing they're assured of placing top ten in the world. Emily Hughes will probably wind up medaling at Nationals, but she placed 3rd at Cup of China in one of the least competitive Grand Prix rosters I've ever seen. Now with Czisny struggling in Russia, I can't imagine US Figure Skating will feel compelled to hold her up in the short program at Nationals (as they did last year) if she doesn't deliver a clean performance. Much as I love her skating, Beatrisa Liang just hasn't lived up to the gritty promise she showed when she competed in the final group as a 12 year old at 2001 US Nationals. Athough Caroline Zhang is ineligible for the big worlds, she'd probably have been a strong competitor on the US senior level this year had she chosen not to remain a junior.

Anyway, congratulations to Sarah Meier on her first senior grand prix medal, a gold at that! Sarah has dealt with a string of bad luck and injuries since she first took home a bronze medal at the 2000 World Junior Championships. I remember loving her performance to "Miss Saigon" and feeling that she got lost in the shuffle at that event. Americans Jenny Kirk and Deanna Stellato took home gold and silver respectively, and the big news was that Sasha Cohen finished 6th, and as a result she did not qualify for the senior World championships. I remember talking to a few friends after the event. Everyone seemed focused on the three Americans (who were all equally exciting in different ways), and even Hungarian Tamara Dorofejev had a lot of buzz. I remember being disappointed for Sarah because I felt her performances were strong, steady and oozing with potential. Six years later, it's great to see her break through on the senior level. Perseverence and hard work can be a wonderful thing.

Cup of Russia - Short Program Results

1) Julia Sebestyen HUN 54.36
2) Elena Sokolova RUS 52.08
3) Sarah Meier SUI 50.92
4) Arina Martinova RUS 49.46
5) Viktoria Volchkova RUS 47.50
6) Yoshie Onda JPN 45.56
7) Aki Sawada JPN 45.56
8) Alissa Czisny USA 44.98
9) Kiira Korpi FIN 43.14
10) Anastasia Gimazetdinova UZB 42.76
11) Yan Liu CHN 40.72
12) Viktoria Pavuk HUN 34.88

Cup of Russia Predictions

1) Sarah Meier SUI
2) Alissa Czisny USA
3) Elena Sokolova RUS
4) Julia Sebestyen HUN
5) Kiira Korpi FIN
6) Yoshie Onda JPN

Wow. The Cup of Russia roster reads like a who's who of inconsistent skaters. Almost every woman on this roster has the goods to win but really none of them have shown any consistency throughout their career. I'm really bad at making predictions, but this line-up makes it even tougher.

Elena Sokolova hasn't lived up to the potential she
showed when she won a World silver medal in 2003.
Photo by Michael Bernadsky.

Alissa Czisny winning this event wouldn't surprise me. Contrary to Peter Carruther's harsh comments after her free skate at Skate Canada, I don't think she skated that poorly at all. With that said, I predict Sarah Meier to win this event based on her consistency for the past year...which ironically may be reason to surmise that she's due for a sub-par performance, and Czisny could sneak in with a victory. Five years ago it was almost inconceivable that Cup of Russia would take place without at least one of the Russian ladies being a lock for the podium, but Irina Slutskaya and Maria Butyrskaya are no longer Grand Prix fixtures so... Viktoria Volchkova's health has been a mystery for some time now, so it's impossible to guess how she'll fare. That leaves the erratic Elena Sokolova as the most logical medal threat from the Russian ladies team. I'm predicting that she just might come alive before her home country and sneak in with a medal. Sebestyen is coming off a win at Cup of China but that was the weakest Grand Prix rosters I've seen in a long time. I believe she only landed three triples in her long program, so I don't think she's necessarily a medal threat here.

2006 Cup of Russia Ladies Roster

The short program begins Friday. I'll post my predictions tomorrow.

1) Yan Liu CHN
2) Kiira Korpi FIN
3) Viktoria Pavuk HUN
4) Julia Sebestyen HUN
5) Yoshie Onda JPN
6) Aki Sawada JPN
7) Arina Martinova RUS
8) Elena Sokolova RUS
9) Viktoria Volchkova RUS
10) Sarah Meier SUI
11) Alissa Czisny USA
12) Anastasia Gimazetinova UZB

2006 Pacific Coast Sectionals - Senior Ladies Long Program

I attended the senior ladies long program at Pacific Coast Sectionals last night. This time I have somewhat better pictures...and I'll try to post some in a few days.

1) Danielle Kahle (150.24) is using her "Beauty and the Beast" program again with a more mature costume this year. Her triple lutz was MIA this weekend, but she hit a beauty of a triple flip and three other triples to cruise to an easy victory. In fact, she skated more confidently this weekend than I've seen her skate in a while. Overall, Danielle has evolved into a very polished, mature skater. I would love to see her crack the top 8 at US Nationals this year.

2) Erin Reed (128.26) is such an interesting skater. She didn't have the more difficult jumps but she's such an expressive performer with a real understanding of music. She seemed pretty happy with her performance and should have been. A real crowd-pleaser. Ogden, Utah should be proud.

3) Becky Hughes (121.40) had an up and down performance. She had trouble with one of her spin combinations but then hit some nice positions in her final combo. A big reaction from coach Ken Congemi when she hit a solid triple loop. She gave a so-so reaction to her performance when she came off the ice, but it was good enough to send her to her first Sr. Nationals.

4) In fifth place after the short program, Margaret Wang (120.04) needed to jump into the top four and that's exactly what she did with a trio of triples and again...that gorgeous double axel.

5) Tashe Smith (106.15) had a horrendous warm-up with a nasty fall on her stomach on a waxel. It looked like she had some kind of blade problem because she and her coach were conferring about it for a while. When she came out to skate her "Pink Panther" long program, I was worried her problems would affect her program, but she performed well overall. She looked a little cautious when she approached her double axel and singled it but she also hit a gorgeous triple-salchow/double toe. The crowd was really pulling for her after her equipment problems and she pulled up to fifth overall.

6) Karen Zhou (106.06) was fourth after the short program. I was a little surprised she slipped to 8th in the long program/sixth overall. I had her around sixth in the long program, but this tiny eigth-grader has not been heard from for the last time.

7) Crystal Shum (102.92) was rearing to go right from the warm-up. to move up higher than 7th after she skated a really nice long program.

8) Jacquelyn Garces (102.71) skated to an interesting program which started with her emerging from an invisible box. An energetic skater with an infectious smile, she had a no-holds barred approach to her jumps which resulted in a couple of nice triples.

9) Jessica Martino (93.23) wore another gorgeous costume. I wonder who designs her costumes? She started with a bang with a big triple loop but looked disheartened after she popped her double axel. Afterwards, she aborted two jumps and then finished her long program with even attempting any other jumps. I'm not sure if she was injured, ill, or what, but she looked absolutely crestfallen when she skated off the ice.

10) Olivia Olsen (91.09) had the hometown crowd behind her yet again. I think her music was a combination of "Romeo & Juliet" and "Turandot." She doubled a few jumps but it was a clean performance that seemed to delight her fans. :-)

11) I did a double take when Anna Madorsky (82.36) came out for warm-up because her look was so drasticaly different for the long program. This time she went for the, more classical and ice princessy probably to showcase her versatility. Unfortunately, I missed most of her performance because she was the first skater of the evening and the crowd was still settling in for the ladies event. :-(

12) Crystal Williams (79.23) had a couple of problems here and there but she had a cool donut on a stick spin.

13) Stephanie Smith (73.40) looked like a ballroom dancer on ice, a real fun costume and program. I think she was sick though. She was holding her stomach during warm-up and looked absolutely exhausted by the midway point of her program and didn't hold many of her positions. Loved seeing her Harding Camel though...or as Dick Button calls it the "tipsy skater spin" When Stephanie finished, she clutched her stomach again and ran past her coach to the backstage area. What bad luck. :-(

Trophee Eric Bombard - Final Results

1 Yu-Na Kim KOR 184.54 1 1
2 Miki Ando JPN 174.44 2 2
3 Kimmie Meissner USA 158.03 4 4
4 Joannie Rochette CAN 151.52 3 5
5 Susanna Poykio FIN 148.81 8 3
6 Valentina Marchei ITA 129.73 7 6
7 Christine Zukowski USA 123.59 6 7
8 Anne Sophie Calvez FRA 123.26 5 8
9 Nadege Bobillier FRA 109.88 9 9
10 Sonia Radeva BUL 95.74 11 10
11 Candice Didier FRA 91.68 10 11

Good for Yu-Na! It's nice to see her bounce back from an inconsistent showing at Skate Canada. Ando and Kim will get to duke it out again at the Grand Prix Final, while Meissner and Rochette will have to wait and see what others do to see if they qualify for the big event.

2006 Southwest Pacific Sectionals

The judges assemble for the senior ladies short program.

I just returned from Pacific Coast Sectionals. My plans for tonight were cancelled at the last minute, so I decided to head over to Mountlake Terrace to catch the senior ladies short programs. I didn't takes notes of jumps or anything. Mostly I just tried to sit back and enjoy some good skating without dwelling on the negatives.

I took a few photos, but I'm not a photographer so about 99% of them were unusable. ;-) I've posted the few which turned out merely decent.

Short Program Results

1) Danielle Kahle was the class of the field tonight with a really strong short program to some kind of jazzy music. I'm not usually a fan of pantsuits but her costume looked great on her and was a perfect fit for her program. She had an air of confidence about her that was refreshing to watch, and she was definitely the most finished skater of the evening. I was pleased to finally see her skate to such a mature program...and skate well at that.

2) Erin Reed gave my favorite performance of the night. Crisp, consistant, clean with strong edges. She was thrilled with her performance and so was her coach...who did a little jig by the boards.

3) Becky Hughes skated to a Gershwin medley; it sounded like parts of the "Overture" from the Crazy for You Original Broadway Cast recording. It was a fun, well packaged performance with a nice double axel executed way late in the program.

Becky Hughes prepares
for her short program.

4) Karen Zhou skated to music which sounded classical at first but then turned quickly into techno. She's a tiny dynamo with great overall speed and some really interesting spins.

Tiny Karen Zhou speeds across the ice.

5) Margaret Wang had one of the springiest double axel I've seen in a long time. Despite a hard fall on one of her jumps, she was a very clean overall skater, if that makes sense.

6) Jessica Martino deserves the prize for pluckiest skater of the night. She had a disastrous warm-up with several hard falls, but she landed both triples (loop and toe) in her actual program. She did have a hard fall on her double axel though, but she powered through the other two jumps. She's such a soft, lyrical skater and lovely to watch.

Jessica Martino tries to block out
a tough warm-up...and succeeds!

7) Tashe Smith from San Francisco was another one of my favorites. She had a real regal look on the ice...very powerful jumper with sold spins. She was a lot of fun to watch.

Tashe takes a break during warm-up.

8) Crystal Shum skated to what sounded like a Middle Eastern piece. She had a hard fall on one of her triples (some kid stood up in front of me right before her take-off so I missed identifying the jump). Her double axel was gorgeous...really flew over the ice.

9) Jacquelyn Garces used a movie soundtrack I couldn't place and it was driving me crazy as I tried to recall where I'd heard it. She was one of the faster skaters but had a number of jump problems.

10) Hometown girl Olivia Olsen had one of the loudest cheering sections I've ever heard at a smaller event. Skating to "Time to Say Goodbye", she was really enjoying the hometown supprt and it showed in her really joyous skating and even her playful bow at the end. It was a solid performance. Her double axel may have been two-footed, but I don't think it mattered to her "fan club" who gave her a standing ovation. ;-)

11) Crystal Williams had the misfortune of having her music ("Moonlight Sonata") start skipping just as she was heading into her double axel. She had to stop her program, confer with the judges and then skate back to her coach who pulled a backup disc from her purse. Crystal looked understandably frazzled by the incident, yet she skated pretty well considering the mix-up.

12) Anna Madorsky came out for the warm up and I immediately thought of Alice Sue Claeys, one of my all-time favorite lesser-known skaters. It was the hair ;-) which was done in a real funky style reminiscent of Alice's look for her 99 long program at US Nationals. Parts of her music sound like Fumie Suguri's long program this year, but who knows. She had a rough time with her jumps, but it was a real kick to watch...definitely the most original program of the night. It was a blast watching a skater who didn't seem the least bit interested in comforming to the typical ice princess look and style.

Anna Madorsky- A cross between
Olga Korbut and Alice Sue Claeys. ;-)

13) Stephanie Smith wins the award for quirkiest musical selections. They weren't bad; they just ran the full gamut of selections. Her program started off with "Singing in the Rain" segued into "The Pink Panther Theme" and then back to "Singing in the Rain" and then a little "Big Spender" and I think she ended with "The Pink Panther Theme" again. It was a fun, flirty program but the jumps just weren't there tonight. :-(

Trophee Eric Bombard - SP Results

1) Yu-Na Kim KOR 65.22
2) Miki Ando JPN 65.02
3) Joannie Rochette CAN 58.92
4) Kimmie Meissner USA 52.56
5) Anne Sophie Calvez FRA 50.96
6) Christine Zukowski USA 47.04
7) Valentina Marchei ITA 46.02
8) Susanna Poykio FIN 42.94
9) Nadege Bobillier FRA 40.52
10) Candice Didier FRA 32.42
11) Sonia Radeva BUL 32.34

I'm really happy for Yu-Na! I hope she's able to stay more focused in the long program than she did at Skate Canada, because I'd love to see her pull off a victory tomorrow. It seems like Miki has carried her momentum into her second event, and Joannie continues to prove she's a solid Grand Prix competitor. Just like at Skate America, Kimmie has some ground to make up after the short, but I think she'll do it and nab a medal.

Trophee Eric Bombard Predictions

I'm really terrible with predictions...but I won't let that stop me from giving it a shot. ;-)

1. Miki Ando
2. Kimmie Meissner
3. Joannie Rochette
4. Yu-Na Kim
5. Susanna Poykio

"Her body is long and extended and
her lines are fabuous-she has
long legs and arms. With a body
like this, she has great potential.
I think she will have a really
exotic personality and style
that she will soon grow into."

Choreographer Lea Ann Miller on Miki Ando -2003

I'm predicting Miki to win not just because she's in phenomenal shape right now, but also because she has the ability to rack up a nice sized lead if she skates a clean short program. Based on their steady long program performances at their first Grand Prixs, I'm going with Kimmie for silver and Joannie for bronze. I really love Yu-Na's skating a lot. I'd love to see her medal but I'm not sure she's completely competition ready yet. Though I think she may be on perfect pace to peak just in time for Worlds. Susanna is another skater I really love, and I'm predicting she'll skate respectably to place fifth.

Old Predictions

My friend restored an old hard drive for me the other day, and I found some of my old Olympic predictions. Some of them are pretty good, while others were off-target.

Maybe not 2006 but 2010?

This picture of Carolina Kostner was taken backstage at the 2003 World Championships in Washington, D.C. A really great photographer named Michael Bernadsky took this photo after I asked him to pay close attention to Carolina at the event. He actually flagged her down to pose for this picture, and she was extremely gracious and accomodating. I later sent this photo and a few others to Caro's official webmaster so they could be enjoyed on her official website...which is really beautiful.

2006 Olympics (May 2003 Predictions)
1) Carolina Kostner
2) Miki Ando
3) Sasha Cohen

2002 Olympics (April 1999 Revised Predictions)
1) Sarah Hughes
2) Julia Soldatova
3) Michelle Kwan

2002 Olympics (April 1998 Predictions)
1) Julia Solodatova
2) Elena Ivanova
3) Michelle Kwan

First Entry

So the past year and a half has been difficult for me. I'd be lying if I said things were all better, but I'm trying to heed a friend's advice to keep pushing forward even during times when I don't feel like it. I've learned that writing can be a very therapeutic process, so I've spent a good deal of the last 18 months keeping a private journal. It's helped a lot, but let's face it...writing about your efforts to overcome some tough times can be a drag. So I thought it might be nice to start writing about other things...unrelated to me. I decided to keep a separate journal...one where I write about fun things, i.e. my interests and such. I remembered how I enjoyed running my ladies figure skating site (when it was just me behind it...circa 98-2000) and I thought keeping a blog where I can express my thoughts on my favorite discipline might be a relaxing, simple way to keep busy. I have no idea if anyone will ever read this, and I'm fine with that. In fact, I should be writing for me anyway, but if someone else happens to read this blog and enjoys what it has to offer then that's nice too. :)